The ongoing war in Iran has caused a ripple effect in the aviation industry, resulting in increased prices and reduced flights for airlines. However, the situation is expected to worsen for some European airlines as they struggle to secure enough jet fuel to keep their planes in the sky.

Ryanair, a major low-cost airline in Europe, recently announced that their suppliers can only guarantee enough jet fuel until the end of May. This is due to the potential disruption of fuel supplies if ships are unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway on Iran’s southern coast.

The conflict in Iran has effectively blocked most shipments of crude oil, jet fuel, and other goods through the strait since the war began. In response, the United States has imposed its own blockade to restrict Iranian exports through the strait. This has led to a potential fuel shortage in Europe, which heavily relies on imported jet fuel due to the closure of many oil refineries in recent years.

Europe is the largest consumer of jet fuel shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, accounting for 41% of all European jet fuel imports and 36% of all African imports. As a result, global jet fuel prices have increased by 80% since the start of the war, leading to airlines raising ticket prices and cutting unprofitable flights.

The Airports Council International Europe has warned European Union officials of a possible “systemic jet fuel shortage” in the near future. Although Europe has been relying on jet fuel shipments that were made before the war, these deliveries are running low and may not sustain the demand.

According to Benedict George, an editor at Argus Media, a news and data service focused on commodities, the first sign of a fuel shortage will be European airlines reducing their schedules for the coming months. However, the severity of the situation may vary for different countries, with wealthier nations being able to pay more for limited fuel supplies compared to developing countries.

The International Energy Agency has also expressed concerns that Europe has about six weeks of jet fuel supplies on hand, and if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, flights may be canceled due to a lack of fuel. Although higher prices could potentially lead to increased production of jet fuel, this would also impact other industries, such as trucking, which are already struggling with high fuel prices.

Despite the challenges, some European airlines have managed to cope with the disruption through long-term fuel contracts and minimal flight reductions compared to airlines in Asia. However, this may change in the coming weeks, according to Abhishek Kumar, an oil analyst at Sparta Commodities.

Other airlines, such as easyJet and KLM, have also expressed concerns over rising fuel costs and have taken steps to mitigate the impact, such as increasing fees and adjusting fares. The United States, on the other hand, is less reliant on imported jet fuel and can produce most of its own supply.

In conclusion, the ongoing conflict in Iran has caused major disruptions in the aviation industry, resulting