Turbulence in the travel industry has been felt in the post-inauguration season due to controversial statements and incidents affecting international travel to the United States. However, despite concerns, there have been minimal changes in terms of capacity and bookings for transatlantic flights.

A New Reality?

Before taking office, Donald Trump warned of targeting countries seen as adversaries to the US, including the European Union (EU). In October 2024, Trump sarcastically remarked that the EU would have to “pay a big price” for not importing US-made products, according to Reuters. This and other statements from Trump and his administration have caused concern among US allies and potential travelers.

Since the Trump administration took office, several countries have issued travel warnings for the US and some travelers have expressed hesitation in returning. However, the actual impact on travel appears to be minimal.

Situation on the Ground

Data from the International Trade Administration (ITA) shows that foreign arrivals to the US were down 2.5% in the first four months of 2025, with a significant decrease in March possibly due to Easter shifting to April. During the same period, arrivals from Europe were down 2.1%. However, US citizens’ arrivals and departures to Europe grew by 5.8% and 5.6% respectively.

In terms of capacity, flights from Europe to the US increased by 0.5% in the first four months of 2025, with a projected 4.